Pretty interesting chart showing the S&P vs the two biggest sectors in the economy, Financials and Technology for the last year. Given the strong correlation, either the S&P pulls back along with tech or the financials catch up to the rest.
Friday, November 5, 2010
S&P vs. Financials vs. Tech
Pretty interesting chart showing the S&P vs the two biggest sectors in the economy, Financials and Technology for the last year. Given the strong correlation, either the S&P pulls back along with tech or the financials catch up to the rest.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Conversation with Charlie Munger
I wish I had the fortune to meet Charlie during my trip to Omaha. Here is a link to a recent conversation with him that I came across online. Must see video for any recent graduate.
http://rossmedia.bus.umich.edu/rossmedia/SilverlightPlayer/Default.aspx?peid=4d215177cbe44b1e8e94d0dd68f5058f
Poem cited by Charlie during the interview:
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Rudyard Kipling
http://rossmedia.bus.umich.edu/rossmedia/SilverlightPlayer/Default.aspx?peid=4d215177cbe44b1e8e94d0dd68f5058f
Poem cited by Charlie during the interview:
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Rudyard Kipling
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Thought of the day
"In the same way you can never go backward to a slower computer, you can never go backward to a lessened state of connectedness" - Douglas Coupland
Monday, September 13, 2010
Game apps - fad or future?
This article got published in pluggd.in on 9/13/2010
I ended up playing Jewels last night till 4am. Even though my eyes were almost shutting down, I was trying to line up gems in a row faster and reach the next level. Isn’t this a gaming moment that you have felt with a game that your mind gets obsessed with? Statistics across app stores and mobile platforms reveal that gaming apps are the most popular apps. They by far outnumber other categories of apps like productivity apps. Whether it is free apps or paid apps, gaming apps are the most popular. The next most popular apps are the weather apps, followed by maps/ search, social networking, music and news. (Source: Nielsen Survey)
It makes me think that there are so many of them, that’s why they are popular or is it the other way around? They are popular and that’s why there are so many of them. This is a classic chicken and egg trap hole. I am of the latter opinion. This begs the question why are they more popular?
Games beautifully cater to psychologically the need of self esteem and self actualization which have been proven to be more important than basic needs. Other apps like maps and navigation cater more to basic needs. In this fast paced world where everyone looks for instant gratification and recognition, games quietly and aptly fill this need. As you beat your previous score or defeat a buddy’s, you feel satisfaction and pride even if it is momentary.
Games bring out the competitive nature in you. It can induce behavioral changes unlike other passive apps. News apps simply provide information and sometimes overwhelm you with data you cannot and don’t want to grasp. Once you find a game engaging, you usually come back again and again to improve your score, go to the next higher level or beat your friends. Games like Zynga’s Farmville have shown the viral and addictive aspect where gamers change their everyday activities to meet those required by the game.
Even if you have a little bit of nerd in you, games easily talk to that feeling. The high quality touch screen, powerful processors, accelerometers, sensors and now even augmented reality tools on smart phones and mobile devices enable a cool gaming experience. Features like gesture, motion, and pressure do their part to excite the nerd in you. This ability of gaming apps lends it advantages over say a weather app. How many ways can you show the weather and how interactive can you make a weather app?
Is this craze for game apps sustaining and will it be able to defend its place in the app store?
As data bandwidth gets more expensive and carriers in US and Europe are going for tiered pricing. Apps which are light on the network will continue to grow. Games are light on network usage from the carrier’s point, as they use the data resident on the device such as a locally stored game. Apps which require a user to send data real time over the bandwidth like streaming video apps and other social networking apps will get limited if data gets pricier.
Another critical differential is that the size doesn’t matter, when it comes to game developers. Individual creativity competes at par with that of the larger guys and can enrich the ecosystem. Small developers stand an equal chance like the big players for the success of the app. This is not like other apps like multimedia sharing ones, (Netflix, Hulu, Youtube) which have complex issues like privacy agreements and content rights requiring strong negotiation power and size.
Will this be a similar trend in India? In all likelihood. The factors which make game apps so popular are human behavioral elements and are universal.
I ended up playing Jewels last night till 4am. Even though my eyes were almost shutting down, I was trying to line up gems in a row faster and reach the next level. Isn’t this a gaming moment that you have felt with a game that your mind gets obsessed with? Statistics across app stores and mobile platforms reveal that gaming apps are the most popular apps. They by far outnumber other categories of apps like productivity apps. Whether it is free apps or paid apps, gaming apps are the most popular. The next most popular apps are the weather apps, followed by maps/ search, social networking, music and news. (Source: Nielsen Survey)
It makes me think that there are so many of them, that’s why they are popular or is it the other way around? They are popular and that’s why there are so many of them. This is a classic chicken and egg trap hole. I am of the latter opinion. This begs the question why are they more popular?
Games beautifully cater to psychologically the need of self esteem and self actualization which have been proven to be more important than basic needs. Other apps like maps and navigation cater more to basic needs. In this fast paced world where everyone looks for instant gratification and recognition, games quietly and aptly fill this need. As you beat your previous score or defeat a buddy’s, you feel satisfaction and pride even if it is momentary.
Games bring out the competitive nature in you. It can induce behavioral changes unlike other passive apps. News apps simply provide information and sometimes overwhelm you with data you cannot and don’t want to grasp. Once you find a game engaging, you usually come back again and again to improve your score, go to the next higher level or beat your friends. Games like Zynga’s Farmville have shown the viral and addictive aspect where gamers change their everyday activities to meet those required by the game.
Even if you have a little bit of nerd in you, games easily talk to that feeling. The high quality touch screen, powerful processors, accelerometers, sensors and now even augmented reality tools on smart phones and mobile devices enable a cool gaming experience. Features like gesture, motion, and pressure do their part to excite the nerd in you. This ability of gaming apps lends it advantages over say a weather app. How many ways can you show the weather and how interactive can you make a weather app?
Is this craze for game apps sustaining and will it be able to defend its place in the app store?
As data bandwidth gets more expensive and carriers in US and Europe are going for tiered pricing. Apps which are light on the network will continue to grow. Games are light on network usage from the carrier’s point, as they use the data resident on the device such as a locally stored game. Apps which require a user to send data real time over the bandwidth like streaming video apps and other social networking apps will get limited if data gets pricier.
Another critical differential is that the size doesn’t matter, when it comes to game developers. Individual creativity competes at par with that of the larger guys and can enrich the ecosystem. Small developers stand an equal chance like the big players for the success of the app. This is not like other apps like multimedia sharing ones, (Netflix, Hulu, Youtube) which have complex issues like privacy agreements and content rights requiring strong negotiation power and size.
Will this be a similar trend in India? In all likelihood. The factors which make game apps so popular are human behavioral elements and are universal.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The App ecosystem story in India
This article got published in Pluggd.in in August 2010
The Apple App store or the Android Marketplace is a decision driver for the smartphone purchaser in the Western world. Is the App store concept aka mobile value added services and ecosystem catch like wild fire in India or will it be a Western model that doesn’t quite meet the thriving needs of the Indian mobile user? According to Strategic Analytics Report, mobile value added services is 10% of the revenue of mobile service telecom providers and is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 20%. In the Indian context the MVAS includes person to person SMS, ringtones, ringback tones, games and other mRadio and mCommerce applications.
Companies invest and cite reasons like sales of low priced rich handsets by Nokia and ZTE and commercialization of 3G networks as catalysts for app store growth. As 3G networks get deployed in India, the demand for video and rich media content is expected to grow. 2.5G/ 3G handsets content providers can drive innovative games, apps, and rich graphic 3D inventories and thus grow the ecosystem. Also, Indian operators are not isolated from the world wide trend of declining ARPU in voice plan services. This is highly accentuated by the price wars and ever falling voice plan rates in India. To mitigate the declining ARPU, Indian operators will want to enhance the app ecosystem and cash cow the app stores.
The challenges for the growth of app stores ecosystem in India are non trivial. RadioMirchi, Saregama, other entertainment companies, cricket fans have driven non- voice traffic. However, app developers will have to move beyond the urban mobile user and target unique needs of the rural guy to achieve scale. Agricultural apps, weather apps and apps targeting vocation people like farmers, fishermen etc. will have to overcome the challenges of low spend, literacy and diversity of languages etc. As new subscribers are increasingly drawn from rural India, the lack of uniformity of the Indian consumer makes scale challenging.
Existing revenue share arrangements is the biggest challenge in Indian mobile landscape. The bargaining power of the smaller content providers is minimal. The operator dominates the value chain of the app ecosystem and retains as much as 60%-80% of total revenue. The balance gets divided amongst other stakeholders like app developers, technology enablers, content aggregators. The ROI of app developers is too less for them to encourage capital investments. This revenue share dynamics doesn’t create compelling incentive to the content maker to produce innovative content. This lack of creation of good content will kill the app store concept prematurely in India.
Let’s compare the Indian revenue share dynamics with that in US and how it has evolved there. BREW appstore was the first app store to be launched in US. It white labeled it’s services to carriers like Verizon and AT&T. With Apple launching the walled garden with the iPhone platform, the whole business dynamics changed in the US. The breadth and success of a mobile platform heavily leans on the number of apps attracted to the ecosystem. Apple gives 70% of the net revenue and Android 60% of revenue to the content developer. The carriers have been forced to cede control and have a revenue share of 0%-15%. This revenue sharing arrangement attracts developers to the platform. The game developer makes enough money over the life cycle of the app. He can also have an ad supported app and as he gets a healthy share of the revenue. The operator cannot be a choke point in the ecosystem. In India with the operator taking away 60%-80% of the total revenue, there isn’t much skin in the game for the app developer.
The app ecosystem can grow if there is compelling content development with unique branding and marketing. Consolidation of content providers and aggregators is required to create growth. Content developer conducting their own marketing should enable increased distribution of app stores. Do you agree that a pull effect because of better targeted content is a better strategy to untangle the developer from the operators strangle and grow the ecosystem? Apple is successful not only because of its product design but because it has a healthy growing community of more than 200K apps and 2billion+ app downloads enticing the mobile owner to revisit the Appstore and download something new.
The Apple App store or the Android Marketplace is a decision driver for the smartphone purchaser in the Western world. Is the App store concept aka mobile value added services and ecosystem catch like wild fire in India or will it be a Western model that doesn’t quite meet the thriving needs of the Indian mobile user? According to Strategic Analytics Report, mobile value added services is 10% of the revenue of mobile service telecom providers and is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 20%. In the Indian context the MVAS includes person to person SMS, ringtones, ringback tones, games and other mRadio and mCommerce applications.
Companies invest and cite reasons like sales of low priced rich handsets by Nokia and ZTE and commercialization of 3G networks as catalysts for app store growth. As 3G networks get deployed in India, the demand for video and rich media content is expected to grow. 2.5G/ 3G handsets content providers can drive innovative games, apps, and rich graphic 3D inventories and thus grow the ecosystem. Also, Indian operators are not isolated from the world wide trend of declining ARPU in voice plan services. This is highly accentuated by the price wars and ever falling voice plan rates in India. To mitigate the declining ARPU, Indian operators will want to enhance the app ecosystem and cash cow the app stores.
The challenges for the growth of app stores ecosystem in India are non trivial. RadioMirchi, Saregama, other entertainment companies, cricket fans have driven non- voice traffic. However, app developers will have to move beyond the urban mobile user and target unique needs of the rural guy to achieve scale. Agricultural apps, weather apps and apps targeting vocation people like farmers, fishermen etc. will have to overcome the challenges of low spend, literacy and diversity of languages etc. As new subscribers are increasingly drawn from rural India, the lack of uniformity of the Indian consumer makes scale challenging.
Existing revenue share arrangements is the biggest challenge in Indian mobile landscape. The bargaining power of the smaller content providers is minimal. The operator dominates the value chain of the app ecosystem and retains as much as 60%-80% of total revenue. The balance gets divided amongst other stakeholders like app developers, technology enablers, content aggregators. The ROI of app developers is too less for them to encourage capital investments. This revenue share dynamics doesn’t create compelling incentive to the content maker to produce innovative content. This lack of creation of good content will kill the app store concept prematurely in India.
Let’s compare the Indian revenue share dynamics with that in US and how it has evolved there. BREW appstore was the first app store to be launched in US. It white labeled it’s services to carriers like Verizon and AT&T. With Apple launching the walled garden with the iPhone platform, the whole business dynamics changed in the US. The breadth and success of a mobile platform heavily leans on the number of apps attracted to the ecosystem. Apple gives 70% of the net revenue and Android 60% of revenue to the content developer. The carriers have been forced to cede control and have a revenue share of 0%-15%. This revenue sharing arrangement attracts developers to the platform. The game developer makes enough money over the life cycle of the app. He can also have an ad supported app and as he gets a healthy share of the revenue. The operator cannot be a choke point in the ecosystem. In India with the operator taking away 60%-80% of the total revenue, there isn’t much skin in the game for the app developer.
The app ecosystem can grow if there is compelling content development with unique branding and marketing. Consolidation of content providers and aggregators is required to create growth. Content developer conducting their own marketing should enable increased distribution of app stores. Do you agree that a pull effect because of better targeted content is a better strategy to untangle the developer from the operators strangle and grow the ecosystem? Apple is successful not only because of its product design but because it has a healthy growing community of more than 200K apps and 2billion+ app downloads enticing the mobile owner to revisit the Appstore and download something new.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Gambling Inspirations!
One of my virtues, apparently vice in the eyes of some, (beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder) is Poker. The skillful game of poker, again some call it gambling, has inspired several inventions. Who could have thought the Sandwich, the famous British form of fast food, was inspired by gambling. It was popularized by John Montagu, the fourth Earl of Sandwich in 1762 when he wrapped dried meat in bread so as not to interrupt his gambling.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Facebook gets an Elevated face-lift
Last investment by Elevation Partners of $120m, giving the firm a 1.5% stake in the social networking site gives a latest valuation of $23b. Based on $90m investment in Novemeber last year , the blended valuation range is $14b. (Source: Reuters) Facebook has 500m users and $800m in revenue. This gives the company a rev multiple of 29x – 18x.
Facebook is the most popular social networking site currently. It might be the most important thing for a 16 year old teenager, but is this a winning investment? The company has yet to moentize its user base to the utmost. So one can’t ignore the upside factor. To dig deeper, I decided to look at other ‘hot’ tech startups which have gone big over time. There isn’t a comparable which is exactly like Facebook as none of the social networking companies are public. So I decided to go with tech startups that were considered the ‘Hot’ thing in their times. Below is the rev multiple and stock price movement of 2 big companies from their IPO days, Google and VM Ware.
Source: CapitalIQ
Given the range of these tech stocks, Elevation might be lucky to get return on their current round of investment. Then I decided to look at valuation of companies in the current economic environment and did a screening analysis of companies globally that are above 20bn market cap and have revenue of less than a billion. As my screen results only two companies showed up worldwide: Baidu and a Ezdan Real Estate (a real estate company in Qatar)
Can someone point out how to go short a private company?
Good news: Facebook is hiring and big time, several engineering and business positions are open both in US and globally. So if Facebook gets the valuation that Elevation is going for, there is no better place to work in US (other options can be China and Qatar)
Not so good news: Elevation yet again makes a marginal return investment
Facebook is the most popular social networking site currently. It might be the most important thing for a 16 year old teenager, but is this a winning investment? The company has yet to moentize its user base to the utmost. So one can’t ignore the upside factor. To dig deeper, I decided to look at other ‘hot’ tech startups which have gone big over time. There isn’t a comparable which is exactly like Facebook as none of the social networking companies are public. So I decided to go with tech startups that were considered the ‘Hot’ thing in their times. Below is the rev multiple and stock price movement of 2 big companies from their IPO days, Google and VM Ware.
Source: CapitalIQ
Given the range of these tech stocks, Elevation might be lucky to get return on their current round of investment. Then I decided to look at valuation of companies in the current economic environment and did a screening analysis of companies globally that are above 20bn market cap and have revenue of less than a billion. As my screen results only two companies showed up worldwide: Baidu and a Ezdan Real Estate (a real estate company in Qatar)
Can someone point out how to go short a private company?
Good news: Facebook is hiring and big time, several engineering and business positions are open both in US and globally. So if Facebook gets the valuation that Elevation is going for, there is no better place to work in US (other options can be China and Qatar)
Not so good news: Elevation yet again makes a marginal return investment
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Slow death of Cable TV
Today I visited the online video aggregator www.clicker.com . The website does an amazing job of pulling content and presenting it in a user friendly way with superb user interface. Options range from Live Tv to watch On demand stuff to movies and what ever your media needs might be. I tried several videos and the quality and was as good watching shows on TV.
I wonder how are the cable companies going to survive, given all the online choices to users (Hulu, Clicker, Fancast and many others). Online sites offer the user the freedom to not only watch free quality content but pay ala carte for shows that might not be available free. The online companies will eventually start charging a subscription fee for premium content either monthly basis, but this is still going to be lower than the $40-$90+ cable fee.
Arguments like cable companies partnering or buying out content providers can allow them to force the medium of distribution to be Cable TV. However, as internet TV and even Mobile TV gets scale, the content owner would want to be where the views are and where Ad revenue gets maximized. Cable companies bundling other services like Internet and phone is spoken as another saving strategy. As TV gets popular on internet and cable and voice get converged into internet connected devices, the bundling will have to go away.
Shorting cable companies looks like a winning trade to me.
I wonder how are the cable companies going to survive, given all the online choices to users (Hulu, Clicker, Fancast and many others). Online sites offer the user the freedom to not only watch free quality content but pay ala carte for shows that might not be available free. The online companies will eventually start charging a subscription fee for premium content either monthly basis, but this is still going to be lower than the $40-$90+ cable fee.
Arguments like cable companies partnering or buying out content providers can allow them to force the medium of distribution to be Cable TV. However, as internet TV and even Mobile TV gets scale, the content owner would want to be where the views are and where Ad revenue gets maximized. Cable companies bundling other services like Internet and phone is spoken as another saving strategy. As TV gets popular on internet and cable and voice get converged into internet connected devices, the bundling will have to go away.
Shorting cable companies looks like a winning trade to me.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
How long is Apple an Overall Hit?
AT&T suspended taking new preorders on iPhone as first day orders exceeded an unprecedented amount of 600,000. AT&T commented that their systems are not being able to support these huge numbers and AT&T will postpone new orders till they are able to replenish inventory.
This definitely gets both AT&T and Apple lot more press coverage than anticipated from a product launch. To my mind this begs the immediate reactions
a. Did the sales amount take the companies by surprise? Why were the systems not prepared for the increased demand? After all iPhone 3GS sold 1m phones over the weekend.
b. Most likely the majority of demand for the iPhones is not from new users, but rather than Apple fans. As Apple introduces more product versions with better functionality and features there will be a strong secondary market for the older versions. Ebay and other online markets are going to be soon auctioning off older versions.
To search for these questions, I decided to look at Apple’s Revenue estimates by product and found these estimates on Bloomberg:
Given that most of the growth is coming from the iPhone sales, I am puzzled at the ill preparation by both Apple and AT&T on the launch of their latest gadget. Also what gets my attention is that Music related products and services hasnt really grown at the same CAGR as iPhone sales. They have remained relatively constant over the years from 2007. This category hasn’t really grown with the iPhone ecosystem and once the newer hardware iPhone craze outgrown the Apple fans, is Apple still going to remain a hit?
This definitely gets both AT&T and Apple lot more press coverage than anticipated from a product launch. To my mind this begs the immediate reactions
a. Did the sales amount take the companies by surprise? Why were the systems not prepared for the increased demand? After all iPhone 3GS sold 1m phones over the weekend.
b. Most likely the majority of demand for the iPhones is not from new users, but rather than Apple fans. As Apple introduces more product versions with better functionality and features there will be a strong secondary market for the older versions. Ebay and other online markets are going to be soon auctioning off older versions.
To search for these questions, I decided to look at Apple’s Revenue estimates by product and found these estimates on Bloomberg:
Given that most of the growth is coming from the iPhone sales, I am puzzled at the ill preparation by both Apple and AT&T on the launch of their latest gadget. Also what gets my attention is that Music related products and services hasnt really grown at the same CAGR as iPhone sales. They have remained relatively constant over the years from 2007. This category hasn’t really grown with the iPhone ecosystem and once the newer hardware iPhone craze outgrown the Apple fans, is Apple still going to remain a hit?
Monday, June 7, 2010
HTC acquires Abaxia
HTC announced today to acquire Abaxia, a mobile software company for 13.2 m USD. Even though the deal is small amount, it indicates the strategic direction of the mobile industry. Mobile companies are increasingly vertically integrating the hardware and software designs to control the end user experience. Software deisgn and capabilities along with UI is how companies want to differentiate their products as hardware features are getting commoditized. Be it Apple, RIM, Nokia, HP or HTC now, each wants to control the way the content is experienced. This questions the future for horizontal software platform plays like Windows Mobile and Android as OEMS and handset manufacturers develop their own softwares.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Quote to ponder
Speculation is the name given to a failed investment and that investment is the name given to a successful speculation.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Smartphone Data plan trends
New Data plans announced by AT&T today reveals data ARPU of $24 per data user (assuming 50% overage) compared to the current $30 ARPU. AT&T is betting that the usage distribution pattern is going to change, people are going to use their smartphone devices to tether and be heavy users and they are going to be able to add enough Light users to overcome the ~$6 shortfall. Press releases are quite confident that Vzn and others are going to follow soon. Looks like beginning of a change in operators stakes in the smartphone growth story and value chain.
Current Unlimited $30 / mnth (100% usage)
New Plans
200 megabytes $15 / mnth (65% usage)
200mb-400mb $30 / mnth (assume 50% overage)
2 gb $25 / mnth (33% usage)
2 gb + every GB $10 mnth (2% usage)
2gb + tethering additional $20 / mnth (assume 50% overage)
Current Unlimited $30 / mnth (100% usage)
New Plans
200 megabytes $15 / mnth (65% usage)
200mb-400mb $30 / mnth (assume 50% overage)
2 gb $25 / mnth (33% usage)
2 gb + every GB $10 mnth (2% usage)
2gb + tethering additional $20 / mnth (assume 50% overage)
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Impressions of CES
First huge tech conference that I attended turned out to be a tiring yet refreshing experience. You know one of those things that you wonder why you signed up for, but glad that you never the less did. Anyways, here is what I learned by going to the mecca of tech conferences known as CES.Some trends that I could spot just walking across the floors of the three main convention halls:
1. 3D was the buzz word: So much so that everywhere you turned your head you could either see a 3D TV, or a 3D gaming product or a 3D camera or 3D digital frame. But what remains to be seen is that how fast 3D will get adopted. To me, 3D experience really did not provide a better visual, immersive experience for all kinds of content. The digital photo frames with slightly demented images is not what I would like to put in my living room.
2. Obsession with Touchscreen: Be it phones, tablets, smartbooks, netbooks, e-books, gaming consoles, TVs, ditial frames or table surface it needs to be touchscreen – otherwise its just not hip. Plethora of products met this feature and the different touchscreen experience with using just two fingers or using both hands was not something that would have struck me if I hadn’t attended CES.
3. Connectivity anywhere and everywhere: Multimedia Convergence has been a trend for some time, though content sharing and synced media, connectivity be it at home (living room, kitchen, bedroom, media room, garden), work (home work space, conference room,) On the Go (car, plane, train), outdoors – basically anywhere and everywhere – was so evident. Be it Intel’s Wi-di technology, or Skype calls over the TV, or Marvell’s Home Connectivity solutions this trend was big and tough to miss.
4. The hardware by itself will not suffice: Partnership between content providers and device manufacturers is the winner in the future. Let’s look at e-book readers. An E-Ink enabled display and similar connectivity features and attributes is just not enough. The consumer wants it all (long tail – short tail, basically all) and content in the form of magazines, newspapers, images full of color and motion, video will be the differentiator. Same in Mobile TV- ATSC enabled devices is not the winner, but combination of content and user friendly interface and device could do the trick.
7 cool gadgets that I saw at CES …why just 7? – Why just 7 days in a week, 7 deadly sins, 7 seas..you get the drift..
1. Samsung’s Transparent OLED MP3: This cool MP3 player had a OLED screen which allows one to see the surface behind the device. It had something so cool about when you saw it that I cant really describe it in words.
2. Intel’s VOIP Phone: This device already introduced in UK and going to be launched in US soon is made by a company in Florida called Open Peak. The User Interface was aewesome and how cool it is to browse the internet while talking to someone at the same time on the same device.
3. Light Blue Optic’s Light Touch: Funded by some well known VCs this cool projector can instantly turn any flat surface into a touchscreen. Using infrared technology the projector detects the spot where your finger is placed and works on a light tap.
4. Marvell’s Home Connectivity Solutions – It is kind of cool to access the lights, thermostat, sprinklers, turn them off and on while away from home using an app on your Iphone powered by Marvell’s technology.
5. Sony’s Intelligent HDTV: A TV that switches itself off if it detects no one in the room, or detects people in a sleeping position or a child who is too close to the screen. This cool TV works on a face detection software.
6. D-Link’s Boxee: It plays media from all over the internet on the TV in your living room. It had a cool interface and was small enough in size to keep over your DVD player in the TV stand.
7. Lenovo IdeaPad U1 Hybrid. After hearing so much about it in the media, the tablet with multi touch display lived up to its expectations.
A brief mention of some gadgets that didn’t really hit it with me: Digtal 3D Photo Frame’s was something that I didn’t completely get. Samsung’s two new e-books seemed more like ‘me-too’ kind of devices and weren’t really there for me. A service that would call people before conference calls to remind them about meetings seemed to be a serivce that Outlook currently provides for before meetings.
1. 3D was the buzz word: So much so that everywhere you turned your head you could either see a 3D TV, or a 3D gaming product or a 3D camera or 3D digital frame. But what remains to be seen is that how fast 3D will get adopted. To me, 3D experience really did not provide a better visual, immersive experience for all kinds of content. The digital photo frames with slightly demented images is not what I would like to put in my living room.
2. Obsession with Touchscreen: Be it phones, tablets, smartbooks, netbooks, e-books, gaming consoles, TVs, ditial frames or table surface it needs to be touchscreen – otherwise its just not hip. Plethora of products met this feature and the different touchscreen experience with using just two fingers or using both hands was not something that would have struck me if I hadn’t attended CES.
3. Connectivity anywhere and everywhere: Multimedia Convergence has been a trend for some time, though content sharing and synced media, connectivity be it at home (living room, kitchen, bedroom, media room, garden), work (home work space, conference room,) On the Go (car, plane, train), outdoors – basically anywhere and everywhere – was so evident. Be it Intel’s Wi-di technology, or Skype calls over the TV, or Marvell’s Home Connectivity solutions this trend was big and tough to miss.
4. The hardware by itself will not suffice: Partnership between content providers and device manufacturers is the winner in the future. Let’s look at e-book readers. An E-Ink enabled display and similar connectivity features and attributes is just not enough. The consumer wants it all (long tail – short tail, basically all) and content in the form of magazines, newspapers, images full of color and motion, video will be the differentiator. Same in Mobile TV- ATSC enabled devices is not the winner, but combination of content and user friendly interface and device could do the trick.
7 cool gadgets that I saw at CES …why just 7? – Why just 7 days in a week, 7 deadly sins, 7 seas..you get the drift..
1. Samsung’s Transparent OLED MP3: This cool MP3 player had a OLED screen which allows one to see the surface behind the device. It had something so cool about when you saw it that I cant really describe it in words.
2. Intel’s VOIP Phone: This device already introduced in UK and going to be launched in US soon is made by a company in Florida called Open Peak. The User Interface was aewesome and how cool it is to browse the internet while talking to someone at the same time on the same device.
3. Light Blue Optic’s Light Touch: Funded by some well known VCs this cool projector can instantly turn any flat surface into a touchscreen. Using infrared technology the projector detects the spot where your finger is placed and works on a light tap.
4. Marvell’s Home Connectivity Solutions – It is kind of cool to access the lights, thermostat, sprinklers, turn them off and on while away from home using an app on your Iphone powered by Marvell’s technology.
5. Sony’s Intelligent HDTV: A TV that switches itself off if it detects no one in the room, or detects people in a sleeping position or a child who is too close to the screen. This cool TV works on a face detection software.
6. D-Link’s Boxee: It plays media from all over the internet on the TV in your living room. It had a cool interface and was small enough in size to keep over your DVD player in the TV stand.
7. Lenovo IdeaPad U1 Hybrid. After hearing so much about it in the media, the tablet with multi touch display lived up to its expectations.
A brief mention of some gadgets that didn’t really hit it with me: Digtal 3D Photo Frame’s was something that I didn’t completely get. Samsung’s two new e-books seemed more like ‘me-too’ kind of devices and weren’t really there for me. A service that would call people before conference calls to remind them about meetings seemed to be a serivce that Outlook currently provides for before meetings.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)